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Marketing plansYnew products, manufacturing plans material requirements, and finance plans how much money]the company needs to operate from day-to-day. This is where financial forecasting comes in. _When a company runs out of money there is nothing they can do, short of winning the lottery, to]sustain themselves over the long-run. By developing pro forma financial forecasts, managersXcan estimate their financing requirements and make plans accordingly. Through financial[modeling, managers construct "what-if" scenarios by changing model inputs and observing the\results, for better or worse. The Pro forma model tool helps you build and analyze companiesusing this approach.]One major use of pro forma forecasting is estimating the future external financing needs of aXcompany. This allows managers to seek out the necessary cash in-flows before they impactZnormal company operations. There are several methods of forecasting financial statements,`one of which, is the percent-of-sales method. This simple but effective approach involves tyingYmany of the income statement and balance sheet figures to future sales. This system worksTwell because many of the variable costs and most current assets and liabilities vary_more-or-less directly with sales. There are exceptions to this rule, but for our purposes (and\this model) many of the line items take their cues from the annual growth in sales revenues.PThe goal of this tool is to guide you through the creation of a simple pro formaYincome statement, balance sheet, and cash flow analysis for a business. Your results willJbe simple and, for more advanced forecasting, you may need to adopt a more_sophisticated financial planning tool. However, this tool will help you develop a solid initialHunderstanding of the economics of a business and forecasting in general.TIn order to make your task as easy as possible, the workbook will ask you to provideVseveral initial financial numbers. It will then generate your financial statements andYprojections using very basic assumptions that it draws from your inputs. If you then needOto change these assumptions in order to refine your projections, you may do so.UBefore you begin, take a few minutes to look at the various tabs within the workbook.WWe've provided some sample data to give you a feel for how your results might look when you're done. DirectionsXThese directions provide a general introduction to the contents of each worksheet in theRtool. For more detailed directions place your mouse above the red celltips located)throughout the tool. See this example -->JYou may want to print these directions as a reference guide for this tool.GThis is your starting point for entering data about the company you areManalyzing. The workbook requires certain inputs to generate your projections.GThe model assumes that you are starting a new company; however the baseLyear can represent the company's first year in existence or the last year ofPactual data. Make good estimates as to what the first year financials will lookQlike, and fill in all white cells that apply to the company (if an option doesn'tOapply, leave it blank). Note that the shaded cells throughout the template are<calculated cells and should not be typed over at this stage.MThis tab includes an extensive list of assumptions for the model which can beKmodified by typing over the existing values. Any assumption you change will%carry through the years that follow. ,Income Statement - Balance Sheet - Cash FlowEThese are the primary output reports of your base year and assumption<inputs. Review these tabs to see how your projections look.,Income Statement Chart - Balance Sheet Chart1Cash Flow Chart - Cumulative Free Cash Flow ChartJThese charts reflect the output on each of the associated reports. ReviewDthese tabs to view the output of your projections in graphical form.IIf you would like to refine your projections, you can do so in two ways. Q You can change any of the data you have entered on the Base Year tabS You can change any of the data you have entered on the Assumptions tabTKeep in mind that, when you change assumptions or any other shaded cells, you may beYoverwriting the formulas that currently calculate assumptions automatically for you. This]will not affect the accuracy of the workbook. If you decide afterwards that you prefer to useZthe automated calculations, you will need to start over again by closing your working fileand re-opening the template.WIf you decide that you wish to make changes to formulas in the template, you will firstUneed to Unprotect the sheet. To do so, go to Tools|Protection& and choose "UnprotectSSheet& " When you are through making your changes, protect the sheet again by goingSto Tools|Protection& and choosing "Protect Sheet& " After doing so, you can apply aEpassword or just click Enter to reprotect the sheet with no password.VThe "circular reference" error message that may appear on startup is a consequence of Zthe iterative calculations needed to perform the analyses. To disable the error message, Zclick on the Tools|Options menu, go to the Calculation tab, and click the "Iteration" box.$Click on "Base Year" to get started.SProfessor William Sahlman developed this software as the basis for class discussion[rather than to illustrate either the effective or ineffective handling of an administrativeXsituation. Jon DeFriese, MBA `00 and Chad Ellis, MBA `98 modified it as part of the HBSToolkit._ 1999 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and its licensors. All rights reserved.#Developed by Village Software, Inc."Enter Data in Thousands of Dollars Base Year RevenueAnnual Revenue Growth RateTotal Cost of Goods Sold Gross MarginSales ExpensesMarketing ExpensesGeneral and Admin. ExpensesOther Expenses 1Other Expenses 2Other Expenses 3Other Expenses 4Total Operating ExpensesDepreciation AssumptionYear - Straight LineDepreciation ExpenseOperating ProfitOther Income (Expense)Interest IncomeInterest ExpensePre-Tax IncomeIncome Tax Rate Income Tax Net IncomePreferred DividendsCommon DividendsAs ofAssetsOperating CashMarketable SecuritiesAccounts Receivable InventoryOther Current AssetsTotal Current AssetsGross Plant & EquipmentAccumulated DepreciationNet Plant & EquipmentOther Long-Term AssetsTotal Long-Term Assets Total Assets LiabilitiesAccounts PayableShort-Term DebtCurrent Maturities Taxes PayableOther Current LiabilitiesTotal Current LiabilitiesLong-Term DebtTerm of Long-Term DebtYearsOther Long-Term LiabilitiesTotal Long-Term LiabilitiesPreferred StockCommon SurplusRetained EarningsShareholders EquityTotal Liabilities and Cash Flow AnalysisCapital ExpendituresInterest Income Rate"Interest Expense Rate (Short-Term)!Interest Expense Rate (Long-Term)Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5$Cost of Goods Sold as a % of Revenue(Other Income (Expense) as a % of RevenuePreferred Dividend RateCommon Dividend Payout Ratio Operating Cash as a % of Revenue%Accounts Receivable as <Qa % of RevenueDays Receivable&Inventory as a % of Cost of Goods SoldInventory Days&Other Current Assets as a % of Revenue(Other Long-Term Assets as a % of RevenueAccounts Payable as a % of COGS Days Payable$Current Maturities of Long-Term DebtTaxes Payable as a % of Taxes+Other Current Liabilities as a % of Revenue-Other Long-Term Liabilities as a % of RevenueDepreciation Tables: Assumes: Year Depreciation for the Year"Data Shown in Thousands of Dollars Revenue Cost of Goods SoldCOGSSales & MarketingTotal Other Expenses Depreciation, Interest and TaxesSurplus Liabilities'Total Liabilities & Shareholders EquityIn-Balance TestRevenues Earnings Before Interest & TaxesLess Tax Exposure&Earnings Before Interest & After TaxesPlus DepreciationOperating Cash FlowOperating Working Capital5Less Increase (Decrease) in Operating Working Capital7Plus Increase (Decrease) in Other Long-Term Liabilities2Less Increase (Decrease) in Other Long-Term AssetsLess Capital ExpendituresFree Cash Flow(Less After-Tax Interest Expense (Income)Less Amortization of DebtLess Total Dividends$External Financing Surplus (Deficit)0Harvard ManageMentor - PREPARING A BUSINESS PLAN=Note About Using Internet Explorer or AOL to access this tool_If you are accessing this tool through AOL or Internet Explorer, it is important that you first]download the tool to your local machine before running it. 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You can change the growth rates for any year. < [ xx  6XPP? `]4@F 'JQZfX E<FActual revenue for each year, calculated from revenue growth rates. <E xx  6,XPP? `]4@,@G (JQZfX d<eBased on what's entered in the 'Base Year' tab. To change, simply type into the appropriate cells. <dxx  6XPP? ,+0]4@pH )JQZfX B<CKeith MacKay: Calculate from diff in Net PPE & year's depreciation<TB ,,xx  6XPP? -+1]4@I *JQZfX k<lKeith MacKay: Add an override line for CapEx - if blank, use other. Make sure Net PP&E takes into account.< k xx  6XXPP? 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